This is one of those chances to write a perfect article. Not because there will be no mistakes in it, but because it’s a prediction so far out people probably won’t even remember that it was written in the first place or even a few days later, yet if I am right I can say I called it 4 years ago. So here it goes. HBO Max will not reach 125 million subscribers by 2025.
Why do we think this is the case? Because HBO is one of the most recognizable entertainment brands in the world and has been for over 40 years. Despite this HBO and HBO Max combined had only had 41.5 million subscribers almost 8 months in. And most of the customers were on the HBO cable TV side of the balance sheet.
Is 41 million customers a bad number? Of course not. But it shows that given decades to establish a brand it has and it might just be capped. Not that it can not greatly expand on the audience for HBO Max over the next 4 years. But it will mean getting people who have not dedicated themselves to HBO since it launched in the 1980s and finding 80 million or more people to jump on board.
The predictions made this morning also include that HBO Max will have 67 million to 70 million by the end of 2021. So it expects 25 to 29 million more subscribers by the end of this year. It just might be able to pull this off but here is what will have to happen. HBO Max will have to pick up a huge following based on this month. Two major big market items are going to drop in the next few weeks. The Snyder cut of the Justice League and Godzilla Vs Kong. If there are 20 million or more fans of those franchises that have not already jumped on board with HBO Max yet then they very well could join for those two features alone. It would be like paying 7.50 apiece per movie.
Once they are in, maybe related content like the huge collection of DC movies and TV shows may charm them and real them in to find other content. Maybe it will pick up an influx of people to watch Turner Classic Movies and Anime. Maybe. But our guess is that most people who really want and love HBO content have it already.
One thing can change the game though. If there is a market that wants HBO Max, but feels like it is just a little too expensive to justify. HBO Max will roll out an ad-supported version of the app in June 2021 that may be significantly cheaper than the commercial-free version. AT&T of course has not released any relevant pricing information. But if the cost were to drop to $5.99 or something along the lines of Disney+ people may be willing to pay and put up with ads. But keep in mind, it would be totally off-brand for HBO to do that. While people have watched Hollywood movies on commercial TV for years nobody has watched GOT with interruptions.
In 2019 HBO Max said it expected to reach 75 million to 90 million by 2025. That was likely a much more reachable number as it would be less than twice where it is now. The introduction of Warner’s 2021 movie slate brought the service needed momentum at the end of 2020 when it gained 8 million activations. But as the movie industry gets back to normal such practices may well fade back especially with the most sought-after content.
In the end, can HBO Max reach or outperform the lofty expectations and get on the same footing as Disney+ or say half of Netflix? Yes. But it will have to pick up a lot of new users across the 60 new regions where it will be available and unlock a lot of fans who never knew they needed an extra dose of HBO despite it being already ingrained in popular culture.
