It’s fitting that Venu was referred to as Spulu in the analyst class until it was officially branded. Because the service will probably follow the path that Hulu did, but at a much more accelerated rate. Why do I say that? Because I don’t believe for one second that in the cut-throat world of TV Sports rights that Fox and Disney are looking to split revenue evenly in an uneven partnership. Hulu started as a partnership between NBC, ABC and FOX before being whittled down to one final owner in Disney through a series of mergers and new service launches. Warner Brothers Discovery just might not be bringing enough to the table to merit the pull that its partners would have to give as equal partners.
Let’s look at what the partners bring to the table. Disney/ABC have the rights to Monday Night Football, the primary MLB Baseball contract, all out-of-market NHL games via ESPN+, Weekly NHL games as its primary TV partner, College basketball including the majority of college basketball conference tournaments and College football including the bulk of the college Football Playoffs via ESPN. Fox brings college football and basketball via FOX and the FS1 & FS2, NFL Football every Sunday via FOX’s broadcast networks, MLB nationally televised games, NASCAR, tons of soccer including World Cup qualifying matches and even the UFL.
What does Warner Bros Discovery bring to the table if it loses NBA basketball? Additional NHL games, Additional MLB games another chunk of Team USA Soccer, Bellator (MMA) a newly agreed upon slate of college football playoff games and Men’s NCAA Tournament games. Does that look like an even partnership?
If it does you don’t understand the power of the ratings power of the NFL or even the NBA. The lack of NFL rights and college football rights and the looming loss of the NBA means that TNT is the home of the B package of a couple of the leagues that are left outside of the most popular ones by far. Soccer may be the world’s game, but in the US it pales when compared to the NFL and the NBA. Count the NHL on that list of yeah and options.
Venu does not need Warner Brothers Discovery in order to offer a dynamic sports lineup. And by pushing Warner Brothers Discovery out of the mix it means the remaining two partners will be able to split the difference two ways instead of three. Sure if it actually launches in the fall of 2024 it would not be able to offer NBA games from TNT, but it will still have NBA games from ESPN and ABC. And through January it will have NFL and College football to grab viewers as well.
The only way Warner Brothers Discovery remains an equal partner in Venu is if agreements involving Venu play a role in other agreements such as the bundle featuring Hulu, MAX, and Disney+. If that is not the case look for all bets to be off. In fact, it might even be easier to get regulatory approval if fewer entities are involved with the joint venture.
My long-term guess is that Venu will never actually get off the ground. There are too many egos, leagues and government agencies involved to expect that this will come off anytime soon. And by the time the process has finished the tv landscape could look a lot different.
